Description

Research Questions

Can the features of the ATM systems be exploited as a complex system ( uncertainty, adaptive agents, and non-linearity) in the Network Management phase in order to benefit ATM performance?

Research Scope

This project aims at improving the performances of the ATM system (e.g. predictability) in the short term planning phase by developing new models and algorithms to enable the Network Manager to better manage the two factors that account for two thirds of the ATFM delay in Europe (weather and knock-on effects), in particular by addressing the key sources of uncertainty (weather forecast, unscheduled demand, air users response to disruptions). A Network Manager and AOC simulation prototypes (together with their underlying models and algorithms) is developed and integrated into an Evaluation Platform to carry out a set of evaluation exercises to assess the achievable ATM performances benefits.

The project goal is to research how to exploit the key features of the ATM system as a complex system (uncertainty, adaptive agents, and non-linearity) in the Network Management planning phase to benefit the ATM performance. Furthermore, this project focused on the two factors that jointly account nowadays for two thirds of the total ATFM delay in Europe, i.e. weather and knock-on effects. The attainment of this goal will be based mainly on the prototyping of a brand new decision making model (including its mathematical models and algorithms) for the Network Manager in the planning phase that will take into account as distinctive features: a) the flights connections information provided by the air users for their nominal plan, b) the uncertainty information on the unscheduled demand and the probabilistic weather forecast and c) the alternative recovery plans that the air users would prepare to deal with the adverse scenarios.

A Network Manager (NM) and Airline Operations Centre (AOC) simulation prototypes (together with their underlying models and algorithms) were developed and integrated into an Evaluation Platform to carry out a set of evaluation exercises to assess the achievable ATM performances benefits.

Research Results

The ONBOARD project researches the introduction of disturbance feedback within the Network Manager optimization in order to produce solutions for the scenarios.