PROJECT ID

COPTRA

PROJECT TYPE

Exploratory research

FLAGSHIP

Not applicable

STATUS

Completed

SESAR PROGRAMME

SESAR 2020

PROJECT DURATION

2016-03-01 > 2018-02-28

TOTAL COST

€ 1 280 818,75

EU CONTR.

€ 999 391,25

GRANT ID

699274

PARTICIPANTS

Centro De Referencia Investigacion Desarrollo E Innovacion ATM (CRIDA), Eurocontrol, Boeing Aerospace Spain, Istanbul Teknik Universitesi, Université catholique de Louvain

Improving trajectory prediction through understanding uncertainty

ATM is gradually moving towards the notion of allowing aircraft to fly their preferred trajectory, otherwise known as trajectory-based operations.  One of the challenges related to the implementation of TBO is the ability to identify, model and manage the uncertainty associated to a trajectory.

The integration of the uncertainty models in the planning systems improves the trajectory predictions and supports the assessment of the feasibility of integrating the models into existing demand and capacity balancing (DCB) tools. The COPTRA project researched three areas related to uncertainty modelling:

  • Defining and assessing probabilistic trajectories in a TBO environment;
  • Combining probabilistic trajectories to build probabilistic traffic prediction;
  • Applying probabilistic traffic prediction to air traffic control planning.

COPTRA showed that in addition to quantifying uncertainty through data analytics, it is possible to limit it through model-driven state estimation techniques. This enables not only to include flight intent or initial condition uncertainties but also to take into account model uncertainties.

COPTRA's models provide us with a clear quantitative understanding of delay propagation dynamics in space and time. The project results provide insight into how to achieve more efficient ATM operations in the future.

Benefits

Visualisation of uncertainty

More accurate and stable demand prediction

Quantitative understanding of delay propagation dynamics in space and time

European Union
Combining probable trajectories - COPTRA